Statistics - How To Beat The Chaser

As mentioned on the Statistics - Final Chase page, the average target for series 1-5 was considerably higher than the average target set for series 6 onwards. So all the tables on this page are for series 6 onwards. Also, this is for daytime episodes of The Chase only.

For percentages where the chaser is in direct competition with the player/team, coloured backgrounds are used. This page shows percentages from the point of view of the chaser. Any percentages of 50% and over are coloured red - 100% is a deep red, and the nearer it gets to 50% the lighter the colour becomes. Any percentages of less than 50% are coloured blue - 0% is a deep blue, and the nearer it gets to 50% the lighter the colour becomes.

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Team Size Isn't Everything

The more players you get back for the final chase, the more chance you have of winning. But even against a full house team, the chaser is still more likely to win - albeit only a slight favourite.

No. Of Players In Final Chase	No. Of Episodes	Lowest Target	Average Target	Highest Target	Chaser Win %
0	47	6	13.4	19	87.2%
1	246	3	12.7	20	89.4%
2	693	8	15.0	23	86.1%
3	641	7	17.2	26	68.6%
4	259	11	18.7	26	57.1%
ALL	1886	3	15.9	26	76.7%

Note:

0 players in the final chase denotes a Lazarus team. ie. a team where all 4 players were caught in their head-to-heads, and 1 of them returned to do the final chase.

It's All About The Target

What matters most is the target you set the chaser. The higher the target you set, the more chance you have of winning. With more players back you are more likely to set a higher target, but that isn't guaranteed. A target of 19 is approaching an even contest. Any target above this, and the team are more likely to win.

This table is too wide for your screen - scroll right to see additional columns.

	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
No. of Episodes	1		3	5	12	13	28	47	91	104	149	169	194	219	217	217	152	118	68	37	27	10	3	2
Chaser Wins	1		3	5	12	13	28	47	89	100	146	154	176	180	159	155	82	54	26	11	4	1	0	0
Chaser Win %	100%		100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	98%	96%	98%	91%	91%	82%	73%	71%	54%	46%	38%	30%	15%	10%	0%	0%

Very Good Players Are Very Important

The following table shows the average target and win percentage by the strongest player in team at the end. Where the cash builder score is used to determine the strongest player.

Unsurprisingly, what helps you to set a high target, and improve your chances of winning, is to have a very good player in the final chase. Yes, it would be great if the team's strongest player went for the higher offer in the head-to-head. But should they get caught, this greatly reduces the remaining players chances of a setting a high target, and then winning.

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	£0	£1,000	£2,000	£3,000	£4,000	£5,000	£6,000	£7,000	£8,000	£9,000	£10,000	£11,000
No. Of Episodes	1	6	21	70	166	314	487	426	264	103	22	6
Average Target	6.0	9.2	9.7	12.4	13.9	15.1	15.9	16.5	17.5	17.9	18.5	20.3
Chaser Wins	1	6	21	63	150	255	380	305	188	66	10	1
Chaser Win %	100%	100%	100%	90%	90%	81%	78%	72%	71%	64%	45%	17%

It's Not All About The Pushbacks

It does look promising, that the more pushbacks the team take, the more chance they have of winning.

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	No. Of Pushbacks Taken
	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
No. Of Episodes	480	553	431	277	195	127	47	30	9	4	2
Chaser Wins	480	539	376	169	64	17	1	0	0	0	0
Chaser Win %	100%	97%	87%	61%	33%	13%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%

But you can only push the chaser back if they are getting questions wrong. It is only in 32.9% of final chases, that the chaser gives 5 or more pushbacks attempts. Unless the team can get close to 100% pushback accuracy, realistically you are looking at needing 9 or more pushbacks to be able to take 5 or more. And the chaser makes 9 or more errors in less than 10% of final chases.

This table is too wide for your screen - scroll right to see additional columns.

	No. Of Pushback Attempts
	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
No. Of Episodes	130	255	354	288	238	196	153	112	73	46	20	12	5	2	2
% Of Episodes	6.9%	13.5%	18.8%	15.3%	12.6%	10.4%	8.1%	5.9%	3.9%	2.4%	1.1%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%

23 Is The Magic Number

I think the best measure of team success in the final chase, is the target the team set the chaser PLUS the number of pushbacks they take. If the chaser is performing well, then they can get 22 questions right in 2 minutes. So to beat them, you need to score 1 more. You would be very unlucky to lose having scored 23 or more - very unfortunate to have faced the chaser on a day when they brought their A++ game to the final chase.

The lowest total of target plus pushbacks taken that any team has won with is 15. I have omitted anything lower than this from the table, just to keep it narrower.

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	Target + No. Of Pushbacks Taken
	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
No. Of Episodes	141	168	170	176	157	154	131	113	83	47	53	30	18	10	6	5	2	2
Chaser Wins	140	165	165	163	139	105	71	48	19	6	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chaser Win %	99%	98%	97%	93%	89%	68%	54%	42%	23%	13%	6%	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%