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Statistics - How To Beat The Chaser

As mentioned on the Statistics - Final Chase page, the average target for series 1-5 was considerably higher than the average target set for series 6 onwards. So all the tables on this page are for series 6 onwards. Also, this is for daytime episodes of The Chase only.

For percentages where the chaser is in direct competition with the player/team, coloured backgrounds are used. This page shows percentages from the point of view of the chaser. Any percentages of 50% and over are coloured red - 100% is a deep red, and the nearer it gets to 50% the lighter the colour becomes. Any percentages of less than 50% are coloured blue - 0% is a deep blue, and the nearer it gets to 50% the lighter the colour becomes.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Team Size Isn't Everything

The more players you get back for the final chase, the more chance you have of winning. But even against a full house team, the chaser is still more likely to win - albeit only a slight favourite.

No. Of Players
In Final Chase
No. Of
Episodes
Lowest
Target
Average
Target
Highest
Target
Chaser
Win %
0 35 6 13.7 19 85.7%
1 179 3 12.6 20 90.5%
2 454 9 15.2 22 84.4%
3 398 10 17.4 26 67.1%
4 168 11 19.1 26 52.4%
ALL 1234 3 16.0 26 75.4%

Note:

It's All About The Target

What matters most is the target you set the chaser. The higher the target you set, the more chance you have of winning. With more players back you are more likely to set a higher target, but that isn't guaranteed. A target of 19 is approaching an even contest. Any target above this, and the team are more likely to win.

This table is too wide for your screen - scroll right to see additional columns.

  3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
No. of Episodes 1   1 4 10 8 16 31 61 64 93 100 122 147 150 138 112 75 42 28 18 9 2 2    
Chaser Wins 1   1 4 10 8 16 31 60 62 92 91 109 116 106 105 61 30 15 9 2 1 0 0    
Chaser Win % 100%   100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 97% 99% 91% 89% 79% 71% 76% 54% 40% 36% 32% 11% 11% 0% 0%    

Very Good Players Are Very Important

The following table shows the average target and win percentage by the strongest player in team at the end. Where the cash builder score is used to determine the strongest player.

Unsurprisingly, what helps you to set a high target, and improve your chances of winning, is to have a very good player in the final chase. Yes, it would be great if the team's strongest player went for the higher offer in the head-to-head. But should they get caught, this greatly reduces the remaining players chances of a setting a high target, and then winning.

This table is too wide for your screen - scroll right to see additional columns.

  £1,000 £2,000 £3,000 £4,000 £5,000 £6,000 £7,000 £8,000 £9,000 £10,000 £11,000
No. Of Episodes 6 17 45 112 213 317 276 159 71 14 4
Average Target 9.2 9.7 12.4 13.7 15.3 16.2 16.6 17.5 18.1 19.6 20.8
Chaser Wins 6 17 41 103 171 238 194 110 44 6 0
Chaser Win % 100% 100% 91% 92% 80% 75% 70% 69% 62% 43% 0%

It's Not All About The Pushbacks

It does look promising, that the more pushbacks the team take, the more chance they have of winning.

This table is too wide for your screen - scroll right to see additional columns.

No. Of Pushbacks Taken
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
No. Of Episodes
306 348 307 204 155 101 39 30 8 3 2
Chaser Wins
306 341 277 135 54 16 1 0 0 0 0
Chaser Win %
100% 98% 90% 66% 35% 16% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%

But you can only push the chaser back if they are getting questions wrong. It is only in 40.0% of final chases, that the chaser gives 5 or more pushbacks attempts. Unless the team can get close to 100% pushback accuracy, realistically you are looking at needing 9 or more pushbacks to be able to take 5 or more. And the chaser makes 9 or more errors in less than 10% of final chases.

This table is too wide for your screen - scroll right to see additional columns.

No. Of Pushback Attempts
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
No. Of Episodes
63 130 215 173 159 149 111 89 65 40 19 12 5 2 2
% Of Episodes
5.1% 10.5% 17.4% 14.0% 12.9% 12.1% 9.0% 7.2% 5.3% 3.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%

23 Is The Magic Number

I think the best measure of team success in the final chase, is the target the team set the chaser PLUS the number of pushbacks they take. If the chaser is performing well, then they can get 22 questions right in 2 minutes. So to beat them, you need to score 1 more. You would be very unlucky to lose having scored 23 or more - very unfortunate to have faced the chaser on a day when they brought their A++ game to the final chase.

The lowest total of target plus pushbacks taken that any team has won with is 16. I have omitted anything lower than this from the table, just to keep it narrower.

This table is too wide for your screen - scroll right to see additional columns.

  Target + No. Of Pushbacks Taken
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
No. Of Episodes 94 105 110 110 104 89 78 57 38 35 26 11 8 6 5 2 2
Chaser Wins 92 103 106 100 70 50 33 12 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chaser Win % 98% 98% 96% 91% 67% 56% 42% 21% 13% 9% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

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